What is the exit poll and what is its impact on the final result of the elections
The exitpole (Eng. Exit poll) - literally "exit poll" (sometimes using "excite-poll") - is now used by sociological services around the world. What is an exitpole? This is a procedure that involves interviewing citizens when they leave the polling stations after they have voted in any election. The results of the exit poll are widely used in the world practice of the science of sociology.
Basic tasks and history of the concept
What is an exitpole? This is the receipt of operational "predictions" of the outcome of any elections and the further accumulation of statistics, data on the existing electorate. The country where the exit poll data was used for the first time is the USA. Journalist U. Mitofsky for the first time conducted a survey of people at the exit, when the election of the governor of Kentucky State was held in 1967. Since then, the concept of what an exitpol has practically not changed. And in all recent elections this poll was more or less successfully applied!
What's the point? What is an exitpole? The procedure itself is as follows: people who leave the polling stations, who have performed their duty, are asked who they voted for. Of course, this happens on condition of anonymity. Assuming that the majority of voters have no reason to answer untruthfully, the data of such surveys are used to compare with officially published versions. On election day, the exit polls are widely covered by the press and television. The results, as a rule, are made public at a time when the sites are already closed.
Now the technology of the Internet is widely used -World Exit Poll. Thanks to this online development, citizens who have access to it without leaving home, again anonymously, on their own computer can always vote and at the right time create a good rating for almost any political as well as social activities.
ExitPole performs the main functions -information (which includes preliminary public acquaintance with the results of any election) and controlling (minimizing deliberate distortion of election results). And to make this data even more reliable, two (or more) research companies with independent networks of interviewers are involved. The sample polls are also divided into two or more (depending on the number of companies) part. Then the coincidence of these survey results is another quality criterion for all the data obtained.
Why do not people trust?
Yet the results of these surveys are notthey are fundamentally indicative for the population, which often does not know what exit polls are. They actually only inform, for which of the candidates only their direct participants voted in the elections. And the final results may differ from the results of the CEC. But, according to the world practice of opinion polls, exit poll data is likely to have minor errors compared to actual voting results.
There is also such an opinion of researchers that there is noit makes sense to use exit polls in order to check the elections for honesty. In the event that the main population trusts the election institute itself, the "exit poll" as a control of the results will simply not be needed. If such trust of the population (or group of people) is absent, such a survey simply loses its meaning.